Monthly Archives: March 2013

ΠΑΡΟΥΣΙΑΣΗ:Νέα Φτώχεια & Κοινωνικός Αποκλεισμός: Πολιτικές Καταπολέμησης & Καθιέρωση ενός Ελάχιστου Εγγυημένου Εισοδήματος

Τετάρτη 10 Απριλίου 2013 και ώρα 11:00 π.μ. στο Αμφιθέατρο “Ιωάννης Δρακόπουλος” του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών (Κεντρικό κτήριο, Πανεπιστημίου 30)  θα πραγματοποιηθεί η παρουσίαση του βιβλίου με θέμα: «Νέα Φτώχεια & Κοινωνικός Αποκλεισμός: Πολιτικές Καταπολέμησης & Καθιέρωση ενός Ελάχιστου Εγγυημένου Εισοδήματος» (Μπαλούρδος Δ. Πετράκη Μ. επιμ., εκδόσεις Βουλής των Ελλήνων, Αθήνα 2012). Το βιβλίο περιλαμβάνει τις εισηγήσεις ειδικών επιστημόνων και πολιτικών του Ελληνικού Κοινοβουλίου, καθώς και τις τοποθετήσεις εκπροσώπων των φορέων της κοινωνίας των πολιτών, οι οποίες παρουσιάστηκαν στην  Ειδική Συνεδρία της 15ης Φεβρουαρίου 2012 της Διαρκούς Επιτροπής Κοινωνικών Υποθέσεων της Βουλής.

Με βάση το πρόγραμμα της εκδήλωσης, χαιρετισμό θα απευθύνουν ο Πρόεδρος της  Διαρκούς Επιτροπής Κοινωνικών Υποθέσεων κ. Δημήτρης Κρεμαστινός, το Μέλος της Διαρκούς Επιτροπής Κοινωνικών Υποθέσεων κ. Παναγιώτης Κουρουμπλής και ο Γενικός Γραμματέας της Βουλής των Ελλήνων κ. Θάνος Παπαϊωάννου. Το βιβλίο θα παρουσιάσουν οι Καθηγητές του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών κκ. Νίκος Δεμερτζής, Ναπολέων Μαραβέγιας, Ιωάννης Υφαντόπουλος και Δημήτρης Χαραλάμπης.

 

Συντονιστής της εκδήλωσης θα είναι ο κ. Διονύσης Μπαλούρδος, Διευθυντής Ερευνών του Εθνικού Κέντρου Κοινωνικών Ερευνών

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Cypriot Kate Phylaktis, Professor at CASS

Cyprus has a huge black market so capital controls won’t work and it will be years before controls are lifted, says Cypriot Kate Phylaktis, Professor of International Finance at Cass Business School 

Leave a comment

March 28, 2013 · 7:53 pm

Dijsselbloem’s comments & Bonds expected return & CDS cost

if Cyprus will be a paradigm for Europe’s monetary policy according to this guy’s  comments than the risk return equilibrium is in great danger. Bonds & deposits should expect a significant increase in their returns according to the risks their undertake which seen similar to the equities. We must expect also significant increase on CDS or insurance cost. Happy to heart your comments

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Eurogroup Decision for Cyprous Saves Low Capital Deposits

Europgroup decision

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

The Gas Model of CypRus

This model is very simplistic for many reasons but for a quick reference I can mention the following, since many of you asked about:

-The project is unlevered without loan which can boost profits but this is not a restricting hypo for the Cyprus case (low tax environment) and the diffuculty they face (due to their rating) to fund the project.
-The price has a cap determined by the level of prices in Asia if exported and a floor if consumed in Cyprous in which case the project can further benefit the island through import energy savings. This projects are not priced on the NBP spot but with LT oil indexed contracts. Prices can be higher than 17$/MMBtu for 2013 level as determined in ASIA by the long term oil/crudes indexed contracts.
-The model does not account the probabilities of success or failure or any optionality.
-The model does not account the lag of experience and the royalties which can be up to 50% or higher split between Goverment and Contracting companies.
-At best production will start at 2020 and not right now or in 7years
-Construction interest is not included and its very importanCyprGas Theodorou
-the NPV as calculated it seems to me that refers to the cash flows to the firm

CyprGas Reuters-BPt for a 7year construction period

I welcome your comments. I attach both models from Reuters and a version of mine open, in order to play with, in which I include some sensitivities for the most important factors to my opinion whcih are the % of COGS and the price of gas.

From my calculations in an enhanced version I come up with a cash flow gas benefit up to 6,5%/a of Cyprous GDP based on ASIA prices with 50% probability of success.

3 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

A simplistic approach for BP level who ignores the oil indexation of such projects

An unfortunate and very simplistic approach for BP level whose fundamental assumptions are problematic since those projects are not priced with the spot NBP market price but are based on LongTerm contracts which are oil indexed. But to be honest even with replacement value pricing the money strean will come at best from 2020 onwards and will cover 2%/a of their GDP!!

Cyprus will struggle to make gas math work | Considered View | Breakingviews.

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Investments & Deposits risk return unbalance CypRus conclusion

A significant conclusion emerged from Cyprus paradigm IF DEPOSITS HAVE HIGHER RISK THAN EQUITIES THAN THOSE FUNDS MUST SEARCH AN ALTERNATIVE REWARD => risk/return is in significant unbalance

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized