US Oil Exports to Europe

US commerce department this June licenced 2 companies PIONEER & EPP to export to Europe around August light (condensate) crude which used for ULSD & GO. Currently roughly the arbitrage, as seen in the diagrams below, stands around 7-10$/bbl. Is that an opportunity to subsidise Iraq disruptions? It depends, if signals a change in US export strategy early enough talking into account that US midterm elections are ahead.  Arbitrage historically had been at most up to 20$/bbl and most of time positive.

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