EU can break even the Ukraine winter gas transit loss: a reply to Ross McCracken energy economist in Platts “The Barrel Blog”

This is a very interesting analysis of Ross McCracken from Platts economists to which I disagree on the issue that If Ukraine “Siphon off NG supplies” from Bratstvo & Soyuz the alternatives of Belarus, Poland, Nordstream along with the already attained high storage in rest of Europe (~87%), can break-even the transit loss, deficit (estimated up to 12 bcf/d, 16% of Europe needs including balkans). Definately there is still an issue with the balkans which EU must solve (taking into account the Italian problems with Africa provisions). Prices have already discounted the problem and logically started to deflate. Definately a logical increase 3 to 4 €/MWh is attributed to seasonal peaks and not to Ukrainian Crisis, unless the various press articles have an effect on physochological factors and on trading behaviour.

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