Monthly Archives: November 2014

LNG Opportunities in Greek market by hedging among related tarrifs and spot price ensure also high profits for intermediate shippers

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As in free money friday 28 2014

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November 28, 2014 · 3:30 pm

How many profit 6% within few hours from #brent #oil look at the volume. Think also the #put positions which opened at 80$/bbl

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November 27, 2014 · 4:33 pm

#OPEC concludes not to cut #oil production as expected

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November 27, 2014 · 4:00 pm

Unbelievable #intraday fall of #brent #oil 3$/bbl pressing OPEC decision (up to now no annoucement)

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November 27, 2014 · 3:22 pm

#Gas & #LNG curve turns in #contango for the FM while on the back #brent #implied vol at 40% absorbs lng opportunities due to seasonality

As we move in the winter period seasonality increases the prices of gas after a significant drop in the previous months which created fantastic opportunities for spot LNG.

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Moody’s lowered it’s #brent oil average price assumption for 2015 at 80$/bbl

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Shipping cost of #LNG will remain at very low levels due to Oversupply

Hoeg Statement for LNG shipping
“Close to 40 percent of the LNG carriers with delivery in 2014 do not have a contract, and the short term-market for LNG carriers is consequently expected to remain oversupplied until 2016-2017…The current order book for LNG carriers is 125 vessels, representing 35 percent of the world LNG carrier fleet, and approximately 25 percent of these LNG carriers are without a firm contract.”

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In my previous posts referred about the #LNG #Opportunities. Now those are taken by the deal Ελβάλ-M&M

Its very funny because few months ago talked about LNG Opportunities in Med. People where telling me that if those opportunities existed than Revithousa would be filled with LNG. Now the answer is given by the actual synergies among ELBAL and M&M : Μυτιληναίος-Βαρδινογιάννης ανοίγουν την αγορά φυσικού αερίου
http://www.sofokleousin.gr/archives/200402.html
According to a draft estimation a benefit up to 2,5 million $ exist from the first cargo of #LNG from the M&M imports

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#LNG Oversupply narrows basis #risk with front month #contango to 1€/ΜWh

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Market signs a further fall in LNG price: As Reuters reports: “There is no global LNG spot market right now, there’s just lots of supply and no demand,” a trading source
Asia’s eroded premium means it is now more profitable to send LNG produced in Nigeria or Trinidad and Algeria towards Europe than it is to sell to Japan, whose gas hubs cannot easily absorb the intake.
France is set to receive 16 cargoes this month, up 44 percent versus a year ago, drawn from Trinidad and Qatar, while 
Turkey also upped November spot purchases to three, data shows. Britain may see the biggest supply uptick from top producer Qatar, while Europe could even start pulling in Australian supplies if Asian prices continue falling, reversing trade flow trends established after Fukushima.
Oversupply began this summer, forcing traders to store cargoes on tankers and at terminals with the intention of re-selling them once demand and prices rose.

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My and GS options implied #brent #oil increase conditional on #OPEC quota

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Happy to see that GS estimated options implied increase is close to my predictions conditionally upon OPEC quota. See below my previous post
http://wp.me/p2N4RV-dR

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