Current lows in #brent #crude #oil and OPEC supply cut


According to my draft calculations historical elasticity stands in the band of 0,3/a to 0,5/a. OPEC with a cut of up to 1mb/d cannot boost prices higher that 3$/bbl under the assumption of non substitution from rivals as well as the recent shorting and opening of put positions at strikes around 80$/bbl. Currently the loss of OPEC income stands up to 155m$/d but with the average yearly price of brent which absorbs the late 5months decrease.  If we do the calcs with the current levels of brent than this number increases up to 983m$/d in comparison to 2013 levels. The boost of 3$/bbl will save OPEC 105 m$/d from the current lows (based on EIA 2014 projection of production) unless this will be lost by a substitution effect from market rivals like in the past from Britain, Norway, Mexico, Russia and recently with Canadian sand oil as well as US shale players. Free riding will determine if a decision about cut will lead to a permanent loss of market share. Definitely there is always a possibility for cooperation with rivals which might keep prices at a band of 10-15$/bbl higher than today’s spot.


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