Monthly Archives: March 2015

Will be catastrofic for #Greece to go out of #euro. Look the current #forex drop effect on our #trade #balance

image

What can be noticed is that the higher percentage of exports is in distillate products which are priced on dollars below we can see the dramatic drop of euro in relation to dollar

image

Let’s now see if this state of economy which is beneficial to Greece (due to drop in international crude price) had any positive impact on our trade balance

image

image

What is noticed is a turbulence with no visual positive impact while the gap among imports and exports still in high levels. If we look where we export (graph below) we notice that more than 1/3 goes out of euro countries which means that at this state the drop of euro should have at least a visual positive impact on our trade balance. BUT THIS IS NOT CONCLUDED.

image

SUMMARISING A CURRENCY WITH LOW PARITY WITH DOLLAR WILL BE A DISASTER FOR GREECE IN THE SHORT TIME AND IN THE LONG TIME WILL HAVE NOONE ALIVE TO SEE THE POSITIVE IMPACTS

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Will #Eclipse on Friday 20 March cause any problems to #Greek #electricity system

image

From the Formula below the loss of Available capacity is estimated in relation to normal conditions: [Photovoltaic (ΜW) installed*(ClearSkyRadiation)/(maxRadiation2015*(1+33%increased probability))]*[1-Sun HideOut]. For Greece sun hide out at nearest point is Larissa with Losing 37% of radiation (as seen in the above graph). The 1st band refers to hours 8 am to 9 am and ongoing till 11-12 am the estimated Loss of capacity might be from 800 MW to 1000MW in relation of course to normal conditions and not to the full available capacity installed which for 2015 approx 3.848 MW. If we “play” with the probability of max radiation and oscillate then we get a significant loss of capacity:

image

But with the current load up to the levels below (since the spot might be the best tomorrow’s estimator) and even with this delta (on realVsforecasted) the available Gas stations capacity at these hours is far enough to cover any problems BUT not taking into ACCOUNT any instability of the TRANSMITION network. That means from a generation point of view it seems no problem BUt from transmission needs high caution.

image

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

#Greek auction of 13W TB according to #IMF #repayment #loans. Previous (11Mar) #YTM at 2,7%

Caution since below is in SDR while in euro 16 March is aprox 588m € and on 20 March 351m€ on total aprox 1b€ as the amount of auction below

n

image

image

1 Comment

Filed under Uncategorized

Greek Exit From The Eurozone Would Have Limited Direct Contagion Risks

Standard & Poor's Global Credit Portal.

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized

IOU’s seem unavoidable solution for #Greek liquidity problems as discussed by Cochrane and GS

Domestic financial obligations would be met with the issuance of IOUs. Were its fiscal primary balance to remain positive, the Greek government could meet expenditures from current revenue (while allowing its debt service to fall into arrears, as with external obligations). But we are sceptical that the new Greek government will maintain a primary surplus, in a context where the economic recovery has stalled, tax revenues are declining, privatisation has been halted and electoral promises for higher spending will need to be fulfilled. In that case, the fiscal deficit could be covered by issuing IOUs: for example, pensioners, public employees and government contractors could all be paid in ‘scrip’, which could then be used for further transactions. (To put it another way, these IOUs would likely act as a nascent parallel currency circulating alongside the remaining Euro banknotes in Greece)

https://aetospress.wordpress.com/2015/02/07/the-opinion-of-john-coch-on-financing-greek-debt-but-restructuring-still-an-issue/

Leave a comment

Filed under Uncategorized