From the Formula below the loss of Available capacity is estimated in relation to normal conditions: [Photovoltaic (ΜW) installed*(ClearSkyRadiation)/(maxRadiation2015*(1+33%increased probability))]*[1-Sun HideOut]. For Greece sun hide out at nearest point is Larissa with Losing 37% of radiation (as seen in the above graph). The 1st band refers to hours 8 am to 9 am and ongoing till 11-12 am the estimated Loss of capacity might be from 800 MW to 1000MW in relation of course to normal conditions and not to the full available capacity installed which for 2015 approx 3.848 MW. If we “play” with the probability of max radiation and oscillate then we get a significant loss of capacity:
But with the current load up to the levels below (since the spot might be the best tomorrow’s estimator) and even with this delta (on realVsforecasted) the available Gas stations capacity at these hours is far enough to cover any problems BUT not taking into ACCOUNT any instability of the TRANSMITION network. That means from a generation point of view it seems no problem BUt from transmission needs high caution.