Monthly Archives: May 2015
Marked to market #Greek #default probabilities from CDS trading. A negative interest rate opportunity for Greece is lost in theory
What can be easily noticed is the relative stability of periphery during March and mid April while Greek CDS skyrocketed the mtm default probability. There is a tremendous difference in the Greek CDS in bps and that of periphery, the first in thousands the rest in hundreds. It seems to me that the QE program of ECB absorbs much of contagion risk together with other recovery factors: lower oil prices, end of fiscal austerity and higher demand from abroad. What worths to mention is that THIS WAS THE BEST PERIOD FOR GREECE due to falling euro and the historic lows of interest rates and this period is lost to unfruitfull discussions and theories. I donot know how things will be when the recovering in Europe will drive the increase on ECB interest rates, will than talk for lost opportunities.