Monthly Archives: May 2015

#Forex & #USD lost Correlation with #Oil price

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#Greece #gas 2014 ~2,8 bcm of portfolio: 21% Algerian #LNG, 21%RTurkish, 58% Rush/Bulgarian, @icis_energy

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May 19, 2015 · 9:55 am

#Liquidity trap in #Greece, #M0 Vs M2,3 deposit withdrawal denotes the level of confidence

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#Greek #default probability by S&P polls lower than what #CDS market discounts while 90% take into account the events predictability

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The likelihood of default much lower than what CDS mtm discounts (look the below posts).  Consistency in no prediction probability at ~12%.  That means the market up to 90% discount the event but with different probs.

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Marked to market #Greek #default probabilities from CDS trading. A negative interest rate opportunity for Greece is lost in theory

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What can be easily noticed is the relative stability of periphery during March and mid April while Greek CDS skyrocketed the mtm default probability.  There is a tremendous difference in the Greek CDS in bps and that of periphery,  the first in thousands the rest in hundreds. It seems to me that the QE program of ECB absorbs much of contagion risk together with other recovery factors: lower oil prices,  end of fiscal austerity and higher demand from abroad. What worths to mention is that THIS WAS THE BEST PERIOD FOR GREECE due to falling euro and the historic lows of interest rates and this period is lost to unfruitfull discussions and theories. I donot know how things will be when the recovering in Europe will drive the increase on ECB interest rates, will than talk for lost opportunities.

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Senarios for increase in collaterals needed by #ECB for #ELA funding in case of #Greek no agreement

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May 4, 2015 · 11:28 am