#Brent #Oil Forecasts 2015-16, Implied #Volatility & #Contango, Basis #risk

#EIA forecasts #Brent crude #oil prices will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, ($6/b and $8/b lower than previous forecast). Atlantic spread at 5$/bbl. The #contango front month to year basis risk for Brent settled at -$7.32/b on August 6 due to excess supply expectations. Historically  in highest collapse (2008) Brent stopped the recovery at Fibonacci 23% RL at 59.5 and fell back below the 14.6% Fibonacci RL at 49.2. Now fundamentals are in the play with Iran at the forefront.

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