#Brent #Risk Price Contradiction and #hedging implications

As said Oil price decrease (approx -3$/bbl on levels or ~6%  (-3-8% in relevant equities) is mainly driven by macros and not by fundamentals since the worst case of 100-150.000 bpd estimated demand drop will not mean much for the global profile. BUT the contradiction is that North Sea companies EBIT is much better now due to the dollar pound spread!! since pricing is in $, so EVEN fundamentals are getting better in terms of operational margin THUS how this drop is explained? One explanation can be the Forex$/Oil price negative correlation (which lately doesnot hold as much as in the past), such as the appreciate of $ drove the relevant drop on the forward curve since the forward has more a financial impact of hedging and determined by interest rate among other macros. Indeed the time spread margin have been tighten and this might offer an explanation. Another contradiction of brexit crisis to mention is the pound/euro depreciation since pound’s fundamentals are all best in terms of inflation, unemployment, growth… this euro/pound will trigger intercontinental gas pipeline trading and from Monday will see the effects on gas/forex spread.

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