Category Archives: Uncategorized

#Euro reaction to negative rates and #ECB #risk taking decision on corporate debt

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March 10, 2016 · 7:07 pm

#Riskless rates as approached by 10 YTB of #YTM have fallen more than -2% in all #G7 #GREECE keeps at extreme #risk levels

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March 6, 2016 · 6:53 pm

#Crude #Oil Production Freeze and #Price #Risk

As denoted in the previous post there seems no important impact on price of oil evenwith the contingency clause of Iran participation. The freeze takes back oil production at peak January levels and this decision hits the ball in the Iranian field by giving the role of regulator while his market come back is in its infancy (already shipping in Europe & started in Greece).

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The market didn’t reacted upwards and most people claim the contingency clause (regarding to other producers participation in the scheme).BrentCrude1.png

As Market Efficiency hypothesis imply that the current price is the best forecast, thus I believe that there will be no significant change in the market. As you can see in the graph below at the end only volatility increased and price fluctuates within the risk bandwidth:

BrentCrude2.png

Oil market volatility closed in January up to 70% the highest since 2009.
If you take also into account, from the Market Dynamics point of view, that the current high inventory level is an important determinant, than you understand the significant time lag needed for a stop in oil accumulation and inventory absorption before any price “correction” (consider also that inventory cannot depleted at current low price levels).

Oil Inventory.png

Moreover, the forward curve structure also remains in contango with the same basis risk which further indicates the importance of inventories:

Oil Forward Curve.png

Thus from fundamentals and technical analysis point of view there seems no significant impact on the short term (Russian companies can remain in positive FcF territory even for prices ~30$/bbl givethRubbllosivalue). ThroloAsianChinwhicarthmaibackufoEuropeaanUdemandecreaseOcourseforexandespecially/bblgiventheRubblelostinvalue).IfullyagreewiththeroleofAsiaandChinawhicharethemainbackupforEuropeanandUSdemanddecrease.Ofcourseforexandespeciallyis very significant as well as taxes (Russia needs higher prices to breakeven loss in budget revenues), but its more of a game story since US exports compete for market share and sustained low price strategy of OPEC seem to have results since Moody’s already downgraded many companies (175 on watch). For Europe a price increase in Oil will be of benefit in terms of Monetary policy and regarding deflationary pressures:

Inflation Expectations.png

inflation forecasts.png

On the Long Term many companies are already distressed and started to be in divestment territory definitely there will be a return to its LT average thus a price increase to levels higher than the 40$/bbl.

 

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Saudi & Russia Ministers Freeze #Crude #Oil production at ~21 mbpd

Energy Ministers decided to freeze production at January levels in order to control the oversupply, an attempt to control-stabilize the price. Remains to see whether this movement will break even with Iran supply policy or change the current trend. The effect on the market currently is an increased volatility and not a trend change on price.

Oil.png

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Investors in Britain in >6%prob of #Risk due to #Brexit #Greece

Most Greeks invested their money due to Grexit in Britain and now face further risks due to Brexit. The probability is more than 6% devaluation risk in -S-FOREX. A Brexit case weight up to 30% probability and will add more than 20% devaluation probability in Sterling which is further correlated by an estimated  10% impact on Equities. Greeks who put their money in Britain must certainly take account of this risk and preposition their investments

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Summary for 2015

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Thank you guys from all around the globe and wishing you the best for 2016

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#Greeks #deposit abroad with (-%) or 0% while at the same time #borrow at 》5%, #Greece

Μία ακόμα επιβεβαίωση αυτών που έχω γράψει και επανειλημμένως επισημάνει ότι οι Έλληνες είναι οι μόνοι που επενδύουν τα χρήματα τους στο εξωτερικό με μηδενικό τόκο και τα ξαναδανείζονται με >5% δίδεται στο βιβλίο «Ο κρυμμένος πλούτος των εθνών» του Gabriel Zucman, καθηγητή στο London School of Economics(1). Στη μελέτη υποεκτιμούνται οι ελληνικές καταθέσεις στην Ελβετία (θεωρείται ότι υπερβαίνουν τα 》60 δισ. ευρώ) σε επίπεδο περισσότερο από 30% του σημερινού Ακαθάριστου Εθνικού Προϊόντος (ΑΕΠ). Το ποσοστό αυτό είναι τεράστιο σε σύγκριση με χώρες όπως η Γερμανία ή η Γαλλία, των οποίων οι καταθέσεις στην Ελβετία δεν ξεπερνούν το 6% και το 9% του ΑΕΠ. Αυτή τη στιγμή, η χρηματοδότηση των τραπεζών από το ευρωσύστημα είναι σχεδόν όση και η χρηματοδότησή τους από τις εγχώριες καταθέσεις, ο συνολικός δανεισμός από το ευρωσύστημα ανέρχεται σε 119,38 δις. Ευρώ (60%ELA + 31%ECB) έναντι καταθετικής βάσης 121,6 δισ. ευρώ. Aπό την αρχή της κρίσης, το συνολικό ύψος των καταθέσεων της χώρας μειώθηκε κατά το ιλιγγιώδες ποσό των 120 δισ. Ευρώ, ενώ το τελευταίο έτος έφυγαν από τις τράπεζες 45 δισ. Ευρώ. Η ρευστότητα που βρίσκεται εκτός τραπεζικού συστήματος ξεπερνά το 25% του ΑΕΠ και είναι απαραίτητη για την επανεκκίνηση της Οικονομίας. Θέλουμε Νόμπελ ΒΛΑΚΕΙΑΣ για την οικονομική μας πολιτική και πραγματικά απορώ γιατί δεν δόθηκαν επιτοκιακα κίνητρα πριν χαθεί η αξιοπιστία των τραπεζικών ιδρυμάτων.

1. Το link για το βιβλιο

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Reverse #Split of #Banks in #Greece

Επειδή δέχομαι πολλά τηλεφωνήματα αναφορικά με το Reverse Split των Ελληνικών Τραπεζών, Δείτε τα παρακάτω για ενημέρωση σας:
Τα αποτελέσματα των Reverse split
RP: Μακροχρόνιες επιδράσεις των reverse split
και μην ξεχνάτε το story ξεκίνησε από «κούρεμα» των ομολογιούχων! αυτοί οι φουκαράδες έχουν ιστορία στην Ελλάδα (το ξέρω από τον Παππού μου).
enjoy reading!  και προσοχή στις Σειρήνες.

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Crowdfunding or Crowdphishing? by Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate

After deliberating for more than three years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has issued final rules on crowdfunding. Unfortunately, the new regulatory framework still falls far short of what’s needed to boost online funding platforms worldwide.

Source: Crowdfunding or Crowdphishing? by Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate

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#storage & #Gas #prices and #export quantities to #Europe from #Russia and #Norway

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